Can South Africa industrialise rail before imports lock it out? The Index tracks where local manufacturing is still winnable against Chinese and Indian penetration — and where the window has already closed.
A localisation target alone won’t answer that. You need the technical reality of what can be built competitively here, the economics of scale against imports, and the politics of procurement and industrial policy — threaded into one call, component by component. That is the Index.
Import penetration is rising as Chinese and Indian supply scales; local competitiveness is sliding as capability and volume erode. Where they cross, the window shuts.
Before the crossing, a focused localisation push can still win the component. After it, the rand is better spent elsewhere. The Index puts a date and a verdict on each part of the value chain — so industrial policy backs the fights that are still winnable.
From the component scores to the localisation calls worth making.
The verdict up front — localise, partner, import or exit — per component, and by when.
Competitiveness scored across the value chain — where SA can build, where it can’t.
The Chinese & Indian supply curve — price, scale and the pace it’s taking share.
Technical, economic and political — capability, scale economics, and procurement policy.
The shortlist of fights still winnable — and the ones to stop funding.
Every input vintaged and sourced in the Assumptions Registry — numbers that survive challenge.
Component competitiveness scores, ranked.
The interactive penetration & localisation engine.
One page, board-ready — the calls and why.
The Index, kept current as the curves move.
Choosing which components to build, partner on, or import — before the window shuts.
Targeting localisation policy at the fights that are still winnable, not the lost ones.
Backing rail-manufacturing capacity where the competitiveness curve still supports it.
Built to survive challenge. Every score traces to a governed, vintaged assumption in the Assumptions Registry — so the call holds up in the boardroom, not just on the page.
Tell us the components you’re weighing and we’ll send scope, sample and pricing. Or start free at rung one with the Weekly Pulse.