One number for a strategic question: how competitive is South African rail manufacturing — against Chinese corridor-bundled and Indian refurbished-locomotive penetration — and where is the localisation case actually winnable? Tracked by segment, tier and location, re-scored as procurement decisions evolve.
Treating “rolling-stock OEM” as one number hides the finding. The index scores wagons and locomotives separately — because the competitiveness gap, demand pipeline and cluster benefit are different in each.
Competitiveness gap ~5–10%; cluster benefit (8–12%) approaches the gap itself. Contracted demand ~400–600/yr clears minimum efficient scale (100–150/yr) comfortably. Binding constraint: off-take duration, not economics.
Manufacturing gap ~15–25%, ~25–40% once financing terms are included; cluster benefit closes only 4–6%. Contestable SA new-build demand ~0–20/yr, below the 40–60/yr MES. Binding constraint: the gap itself, and demand.
Five sub-indices, scored 0–100 and weighted into the composite. Members see the full segment breakdown and the location and trend layers.
Create a free account — verify your email — to toggle segments and open the import-penetration, location and trend layers.
Create a free accountContestable SA locomotive demand, by where it is actually going (illustrative, from disclosed 2025–26 procurements). SA new-build is the thin slice.
Where the cluster physically sits — and what each node does. Co-location is the freight saving the index prices in.
Illustrative AIA index built on the framework in The Cluster Question. Figures are working estimates from public-record procurements, re-scored as conditions evolve — not a forecast.
Read the framework paper