Where Southern Africa’s fuel demand goes to 2050 — and what to do about it. The model-backed view, threaded across the technical, economic and political forces that actually move it.
A demand number alone won’t answer that. You need the engineering reality of the supply system, the economics of a peaking market, and the politics of the tariff and transition — threaded into one call. That is the Outlook.
Liquid-fuels demand across SACU keeps rising through the late 2020s — then crests and declines as efficiency, electrification and the energy transition bite. The peak is not the risk. The fade is.
An asset sized for a plateau that never arrives is stranded. The Outlook puts a defensible date and shape on the curve — so capital commits to the window that’s actually there, not the one the headline demand growth implies.
Not a data dump — a structured path from the numbers to a call you can defend.
The verdict up front — act, wait, hedge or phase, and by when. The one page your board reads first.
The modelled curve by product and market — where it grows, where it peaks, and the shape of the fade.
Refining decline, import dependence and the storage and logistics that become the binding constraint.
Technical, economic and political — each a chapter, then woven into the synthesis that drives the verdict.
The branches that matter — tariff reform, transition pace, refinery exits — and how each moves the call.
Every input vintaged and sourced in the Assumptions Registry — the numbers that survive challenge.
The full report — reads, scenarios, the call.
The interactive demand & supply engine behind it.
One page, board-ready — the verdict and why.
The call, kept current as the assumptions move.
Weighing refining, conversion or exit against a peaking demand base.
Pricing stranding risk on fuel-infrastructure exposure to 2050.
Sizing terminals and storage to the window that’s actually there.
Built to survive challenge. Every figure in the Outlook traces to a governed, vintaged assumption in the Assumptions Registry — so the number holds up in the boardroom, not just on the page.
Tell us the decision you’re weighing and we’ll send scope, sample and pricing. Or start free at rung one with the Weekly Pulse.