South Africa's gas runs short this decade. The only real question is who fills the gap — and how.
“You're an off-taker, IPP or industrial gas user betting on SA supply: when does the squeeze hit, and which fill option is actually bankable?”
SA gas supply is in structural — not cyclical — decline, while the new electricity market layers gas-to-power demand on top. The gap gets filled by imported LNG, new pipelines, or demand destruction.
Secunda in decline; ROMPCO near its usable ceiling — little headroom without new build.
The widening gap is filled by costlier imports, so the price floor rises every year.
The new market stacks demand; the regulator's gas-framework hearings decide who is allowed to fill it.
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