South Africa's freight task could nearly double by 2060. The network it has to run on can't.
“You're sizing corridor, port or rail capacity: which corridors bind first, and how much capacity must you actually build?”
Freight demand sits on a path toward roughly double by 2060 — but the constraint is physical and local. Corridor capacity binds long before the high band arrives.
Road hauls cargo rail was built for; ports bottleneck; single-line corridors bind early.
Modal split is a policy-shaped economic choice — today tilted expensively toward road.
The freight-mobility plan, Transnet restructuring and private-access rules decide the split.
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