Every gas deal lives or dies on one number — the price the downstream project can bear.
“Before you commit to a gas project: will the downstream plant still clear its hurdle rate at the gas price you can realistically land?”
The bearable gas price — the maximum gas cost at which a downstream plant still clears its hurdle rate — set against landed cost. Above it, a deal; below it, a stranded molecule.
The delivery route — pipeline vs ssLNG vs trucking — sets the landed cost.
Oil and product prices move the bearable price; the gap diverges fast across price decks.
Tariff settlements and import rules move the landed cost.
Calls back Weeks 1 & 3 — the supply gap and the terminal race only matter if a plant can pay for the molecule.
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