South Africa's liquid-fuel demand keeps climbing — until fleets start to electrify. Then it turns.
“You're investing in refining, import or storage: you're building for a peak — when does demand turn, and what strands on the far side?”
Bottom-up SACU fuels demand to 2050 — petrol and diesel rise, then roll over as EVs take share, while jet keeps climbing. Infrastructure built for the peak risks stranding.
Bottom-up cohorts; peak-sized infrastructure risks stranding on the far side.
Petrol and diesel peak then decline (diesel stickier); jet diverges upward.
EV policy, refinery closures and regional fuel rules set the turn date.
Calls back Week 1 — the gas gap and the fuels peak are two halves of one energy-transition timing question.
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